Selected Twitter Weekly Updates for 2012-01-23

  • Interesting thoughts on why Google needs to get into social and pure webcrawling might be less important in the future: http://t.co/9xEN5b0a #
  • Great article on how to start off when conceptionalizing a new product http://t.co/Cfe5DrWq #
  • You can't beat every competitor on every score – truely differentiate where it matters when defining a new product http://t.co/KpZiSmoY #
  • Cool – win8 file system is a graph due to scalability,robustness & flexibility. Lets see if they can deliver this time http://t.co/3ndjyfRV #
  • Netflix & Hulu are resembling the companies they are disrupting. Maybe it's time for a new generation of media startups http://t.co/3cPTfPgq #
  • If Facebook actions become ubiquitous they could solve computer science dream of semantic links and inferences – scary http://t.co/379mHjlF #
  • Tips for Entrepreneurs from a First Year VC – 100% agree to that! http://t.co/N4wxNO9T #

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Lean back and reflect on 2011

As my last post of this year I wanted to share two videos which I find particularly impressive. Enjoy and see ya in 2012!!

The first is the Forrester talk from LeWeb 2011 on the post social net and their vision, that the next generation software will merge web and the client server model.

The second video is Steve Blank’s key note “Customer Development 2.0 – Why Accountants Don’t Run Startups”  from Startup Lessons Learned 2010 (the image below is showing the wrong cover slide for some reason).


Watch live video from Startup Lessons Learned on Justin.tv

Selected Twitter Weekly Updates for 2011-12-12

  • The future of gaming – neither purely social nor AAA but a blend since both genres can benefit hugely from each other http://t.co/oUJZS4p0 #
  • Responsibility for a product means bridging customer facing and technical role and these can’t be separated http://t.co/nCQQGGzv #
  • Interesting point:mobile might work not so well for lean startup/MVP because iterations are slowed by App update cycles http://t.co/GHMGmpT6 #
  • Apps are the future, social is running out of people and hours. Forrester at LeWeb – excellent presentation!! http://t.co/SjwORNV5 #

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Spotify going „Music as a Service”

Negotiating contracts in the music industry is hard. Spotify was founded 2006 and only managed to enter the US market in 2011. It’s still lacking licenses for Germany, Italy or Canada to name just a few.  As a result, a major business activity for Spotify is to negotiate and manage contracts. Once these have been established they act as a market entry barrier for innovative new music services.

These contracts have also major impact on the economics of the business model. Costs for content and delivery rise as user numbers keep growing. As a result it’s pretty hard to earn healthy profits as pure streaming provider, despite that some artists complain about low royalty payments. Obviously, Spotify is currently also doing major investments in product development which impact profitability on the short term but this is to be expected from a startup. However, the long term implications of record labels as gatekeepers to content, their reluctance to innovate, and the ability to squeeze margins for streaming providers as well as artists are a major concern.

Spotify’s recent announcement that it’s turning its service into a platform is great news: It reduces the difficulty to experiment with innovative concepts and enables a whole new level of innovation fueled by the creativity and drive of a developer community. Besides karma points, Spotify is benefitting by the ability to offer more functionality and use cases which cater to specific audiences on its platform.
In terms of profits this is great, too: Similar to Facebook and the social graph, Spotify provides a service to app developers by making music content legally and easily accessible. For this it can charge a fee and tap new revenue streams.

There’s only one thing which I just don’t get, though: Enabling legal access to a music catalog and charging fees for that is the core business model of a record label. Why did record labels wait for Spotify to get this done?!?

Selected Twitter Weekly Updates for 2011-12-05

  • Nice examples on how to market to and engage with customers. Not sure buzz word “social proof” adds value, though, http://t.co/c6hwJfJg #
  • Great post on startup career tracks; I think working with the best is super important, seniority of the role less so http://t.co/pk46FhN5 #
  • Lots of competition in the news aggregators field – and a few are missing such as summify http://t.co/GG0cZIjn #
  • Asana vs. Salesforce vs. Yammer – Enterprise software will be an interesting area to watch http://t.co/bZ8teZ0L #
  • Excellent analysis of Zynga and the general challenges of a hits driven game creator http://t.co/SV5njdnR #
  • Box.net co-founder Aaron Levie on long term thinking http://t.co/lZ3P0Tsk #

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The age of entrepreneurship

A lot has been written on whether here comes another bubble (great vid – check it out if you haven’t seen it). Most of the discussion has been based on examples of rising valuations in certain stages and some hot areas where market traction and technical innovation did not really justify the invested capital (Color, anyone?). Business and innovation management theory suggests there is no bubble but at least a decade of great startups ahead of us.

Business theory knows 3 types of business cycles:

  1. 4 year cycles driven by stock over and under capacity
  2. 7-10 year cycles driven by investments into production capacity
  3. 50 year cycles driven by new technology

The 50 year cycles can be broken into 2 parts. In the first period a new disruptive technology is introduced. The second period brings a clearer understanding of the applications and the technology diffuses into the wider economy and society. Between the two parts is usually a financial crises caused by overrated application and market penetration assumptions. In short: after getting drunk on the new kool-aid everybody wakes up with a really bad headache.

Characteristic for the second period is a fast paced and more stable expansion and growth until the markets are largely saturated. Following this logic, we would not head to another bubble. Before that a new technological 50 year wave would need to be kicked off, probably in the areas of nano technology or clean tech.

Due to different durations and time frames (the numbers are more approximations than exact values), overlaps can occur. Additionally, 50 years cycles are triggered by technological innovation which can cause additional overlaps between 50 years cycles. This doesn’t make it easy to get a picture of where we currently are.

The last 3 cycles were marked by the invention of steal & electricity; oil, cars & mass production; and computers & semiconductors. Everybody pretty much agrees on that. Usually the internet is attributed to the computers & semiconductors age, too. But business theory after all has a great track record of getting things right AFTER the fact ;-) . So I’d say the jury is still out.

In my eyes there is an important difference in the internet: all previous cycles still depended to a large degree on physical resources which limit how often a given good can be produced. The internet brought us a technology by which another unit can be created without incurring considerable costs (the music industry had to learn that the hard way). This innovation enables entrepreneurs to turn their visions into reality with minimal resources. Facebook, for example, has conquered the world with just 2,000 employees.

This is the age of entrepreneurship. I think we will get smarter and fluctations of company values will be less extreme because we understand value added better. Of course there will always be ups and downs but these should not really matter as long as we focus on killer products which address real issues.

Selected Twitter Weekly Updates for 2011-11-28

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How the game industry manages customer loyalty and takes it to the next level

Last weeks’ Browser Games Forum 2011 in Frankfurt / Offenbach was a great opportunity to get in touch with the elite of Germany’s game industry. I’m glad that I had the opportunity to attend.
Besides of many interesting meetings, I was also quite intrigued by the skilled blending of powerful management theories and games. I didn’t hear the term gamification once and official as well as private talks were mostly around how to best listen and engage with your customers and improving the service to them.

 

Level 1

In browser games, forums are provided by the game creator so that they have a direct channel and metrics from the customer base. Through this they are able to identify leaders, influencers and generally non-monetary metrics which are important for long term success. For example who goes through great efforts to mediate when there are issues in the community, who provides tools, mods and so on?

Guilds take this method to the next level. Here you give the community a tool to organize into hierarchical sub-groups which makes it easier to manage them:

  • Guilds attract like-minded people. As a result, the user group is more homogenous and provides a greater sense of belonging. Also, social interaction is easier among people with same values
    –>  the game becomes stickier
  • Guilds can provide focused feedback through the Gilds’ leadership

These are some of the most sophisticated methods for loyalty management and channeling of customer feedback directly back into the company. Some take this to the next level by giving community managers the final say on shipment of patches and updates instead of QA. If this “isn’t a good moment” they may delay e.g. a patch for several weeks to make sure the community is ready for it.

Best practice is to measure the community managers based on the health of the community. They should not be held accountable for monetary metrics such as active to paid users conversion rates because this creates conflicting priorities. There is a clear correlation between engagement of the customers and their corresponding life time i.e. someone who posts hangs around for longer.  Appropriate metrics are more in line of conversion of registered users to active members which have conversations.

 

Leveling up

It’s a well known fact in inbound and content based marketing that modern web sites should make sharing easy. People are social by nature and all you need to to is to give them the right tools. Within gaming this is taken a little further. Here, best practice is to include little incentives which help you progress a little or make the game more fun when you invite your friends.

Unfortunately, every game has its life time, too. But since you learned a lot about the customer during that game, it can be quite advantageous to manage the end of game experience as well.
The means you need to have other offers and you need to correlate data across products and find which users are like other tools. It’s important to undertake this analysis on the basis of cohorts because preferences can actually differ over time, customer acquisition channel, playing habits, etc. One approach which was discussed here was for example to create several strategy games. However, in this case you need to be careful about cannibalization effects.
On the other hand one speaker revealed that the most favorite alternative game of World of Warcraft players is apparently GTA. Looking backwards you can find several reasons for that such as both are block buster, GTA could be a nice change after some hours of MMORPGs. I would suggest to always measure and develop “user retirement” over time based on data and community feedback.

 

In summary, most industries can learn a great deal from the gaming industry when it comes to understanding and engaging with customers as well as loyalty management. They are a poster child when it comes to working with instead of against customers.